Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2006

Table 5b Water Supply Forecast as of June 1, 2006 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for June 1 to September 30, 2006 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average
Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-May 2006 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 777,000* 88 81-100 79 24/91 125** 71/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 128,000* 88 80-114 77 33/91 108** 71/91
Spray River near Banff 261,000* 90 82-108 75 33/91 148** 84/91
Kananaskis River 303,000* 92 85-110 83 31/91 109** 59/91
Bow River at Calgary 1,765,000* 91 78-106 72 32/91 116** 32/91
Elbow River 143,000* 91 77-123 67 45/91 76** 28/91
Highwood River 376,000* 90 72-130 55 46/91 57** 17/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


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