Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2006

North Saskatchewan River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of June 1, 2006, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2006 period are forecast to be below average into the Brazeau Reservoir and at Edmonton, ranging from 82 to 85% of average, and near average into the Bighorn Reservoir at 98% of average (Table 7a). This represents a 2 to 3% decrease since the May 1 forecasts at Edmonton and the Brazeau Reservoir, and a 3% increase at the Bighorn Reservoir. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 27th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).

The first three months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-May 2006 recorded natural runoff volumes at the Brazeau Reservoir being the second lowest in 41 years of record at 62% of average. The Bighorn Reservoir recorded natural runoff which was much above average at 128% of average and Edmonton recorded below average natural runoff volumes at 74% of average. Recorded volume data is preliminary, and is subject to change. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 7b. For June - September 2006, below average to average natural runoff volumes are expected at Edmonton and into the Brazeau Reservoir, and below average runoff is expected into the Bighorn Reservoir.

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