Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2006

Table 4b - Water Supply Forecast as of June 1, 2006 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for June 1 to September 30, 2006 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-May 2006 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 428,000** 88 72-117 64 38/91 98*** 47/91
Belly River 147,000* 90 82-116 72 39/91 103*** 53/91
Waterton River 364,000* 95 77-121 71 42/91 106*** 59/91
Oldman River near Brocket 616,000* 97 75-133 66 52/91 95*** 40/91
Oldman River at Lethbridge 1,568,000* 85 58-103 72 35/91 105*** 52/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2006 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions Jun vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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