Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2002

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2002 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average
Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2002 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 973,000* 92 79-110 71 27/84 78 3/84
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 166,000* 91 68-122 60 32/84 53 7/84
Spray River near Banff 324,000* 91 72-119 67 30/84 55 1/84
Kananaskis River 361,000* 89 72-113 66 29/84 61 5/84
Bow River at Calgary 2,177,000* 92 72-114 65 31/84 55 1/84
Elbow River 174,000* 82 60-113 50 34/84 64 2/84
Highwood River 464,000* 75 49-111 37 31/84 31 3/84

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


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