Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2002

Table 6b - Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2002 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2002 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,940,000* 92 84-102 79 7/20** 117 17/18
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,182,000* 84 68-111 62 11/29*** 28 1/29
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,574,000* 79 67-100 63 17/84 43 1/84

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** Lake Abraham is compared to 20 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 29 years of data
Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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