Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2003

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2003 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2003 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 845,000* 80 66-102 60 9/85 100** 42/85
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 129,000* 71 58-97 55 12/85 83** 34/85
Spray River near Banff 290,000* 81 68-103 62 13/85 68** 2/85
Kananaskis River 336,000* 83 68-109 63 15/85 102** 48/85
Bow River at Calgary 1,912,000* 81 63-104 58 17/85 93** 36/85
Elbow River 154,000* 72 54-114 50 24/85 153** 84/85
Highwood River 389,000* 63 47-118 42 18/85 121** 67/85

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2003 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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