Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2003

Table 6a - Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2003 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2003
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Actual March-September 2002 Volume as a % of Average
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,902,000 90 83-101 78 5/19* 103
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 975,000 68 59-94 55 4/30** 71
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,217,000 71 64-94 60 7/85 72

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Click here to see the table containing the remaining forecast for the season along with the recorded volume to date

* Lake Abraham is compared to 18 years of data
** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 30 years of data

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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