Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2003

Table 6b - Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2003 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2003 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2003 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,858,000* 88 81-99 76 5/22** 141**** 19/19
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 958,000* 68 59-95 55 4/31*** 61**** 3/30
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,138,000* 72 64-94 59 8/85 67**** 15/85

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** Lake Abraham is compared to 21 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 30 years of data
**** Recorded 2003 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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