Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2004

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2004 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 932,000* 89 79-102 70 23/91 107** 64/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 151,000* 84 74-116 67 30/91 59** 9/91
Spray River near Banff 311,000* 87 75-107 68 29/91 71** 4/91
Kananaskis River 351,000* 88 73-116 67 29/91 83** 16/91
Bow River at Calgary 2,084,000* 88 73-108 66 27/91 81** 13/91
Elbow River 166,000* 79 60-104 51 31/91 93** 35/91
Highwood River 468,000* 77 48-110 44 34/91 71** 46/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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