Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2004

Bow River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of April 1, 2004, below-average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the March to September 2004 period in the Bow River basin, except at Banff and the Spray Reservoir where below-average to much-below-average volumes are forecast (Table 4a). Current runoff volume forecasts range from 77 to 89% of average, 0 to 3% higher than last month's forecasted volumes. Current March to September 2004 volume forecasts are 3 to 8% higher than runoff volumes recorded during the same period last year, except for the Cascade Reservoir, which is forecast to receive 10% less volume than last year. Current forecasted volumes for the March to September 2004 period for the Bow River at Calgary would rank 25th lowest in 91 years of record (1912-2001).

The first month of the forecast period has been completed, with March 2004 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 59 to 107 % of average. All Bow River forecast locations recorded much-below-average runoff during March except at Banff and in the Highwood River, which recorded above-average and average volumes, respectively. Recorded volume data is preliminary, due to ice effects, and is subject to change. March volumes typically comprise a small portion of the March to September total. forecast, which is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 4b.

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