Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2004

Milk River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Below-average to much-below-average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the March to September 2004 period in the Milk River basin (Table 2a). April 1 forecasts in the basin range from 46 to 50% of the median, an increase of 4 to 7% of median over last month. Current forecasts are 12 to 22% less than volumes recorded during the March through September 2003 period but almost double the volumes recorded in 2001. For the Milk River at Milk River, current forecasted values for the March to September 2004 period would rank 19th lowest in 91 years of record (1912-2001).

The first month of the forecast period has been completed, with March 2004 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 66 to 115% of average, which is below-average to average for March. Recorded volume data is preliminary, due to ice effects, and is subject to change. March volumes typically comprise a small portion of the March to September total. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 2b.

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