Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2004

Table 5b - Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2004 - Red Deer River Basin (Natural Flows)


Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Red Deer River
at Dickson Dam 		726,000* 80 68-113 62 31/91 97** 56/91
Red Deer River
at Red Deer 		1,003,000* 80 58-122 53 38/91 75** 42/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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