Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2005

North Saskatchewan River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of April 1, 2005, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2005 period are forecast to be average into the Bighorn and Brazeau Reservoirs, and in the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton (Table 6). Current forecasts in the basin range from 95 to 102% of average, similar to last month's forecasts. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 44th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001). The April 1, 2005 forecasts are 7 and 16% higher than volumes recorded over the same March-September time period last year at the Brazeau Reservoir and Edmonton, respectively, and similar to last year at the Bighorn Reservoir.

The first month of the forecast period has been completed, with March 2005 recorded natural runoff volumes at Lake Abraham being the highest in 30 years of record at 184% of average. Edmonton and the Brazeau Reservoir recorded natural runoff which was average to above average at 106 and 109% of average, respectively. Recorded volume data is preliminary, due to ice effects, and is subject to change. March volumes typically comprise a small portion of the March to September total. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2005 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 6b.

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