Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2006

Table 7a - Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2006 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2006
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Actual March-September 2005 Volume as a % of Average
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,984,000 92 89-104 87 9/30* 102
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,192,000 83 72-114 65 13/41** 134
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,947,000 84 73-105 70 26/91 123
Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

* Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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