Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2006

Table 7b - Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2006 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2006 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2006 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,940,000* 91 88-103 86 9/32** 115**** 21/30
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,173,000* 83 72-115 65 14/41*** 69**** 6/41
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,827,000* 84 73-105 70 26/91 102**** 55/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

 
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** Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data

**** Recorded 2006 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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