Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2006

Table 4a - Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2006 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2006
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2005 Volume as a % of Average
St. Mary River 711,000* 95 83-116 64 41/91 77
Belly River 229,000 94 79-116 72 34/91 90
Waterton River 605,000 100 81-116 72 51/91 85
Oldman River near Brocket 1,058,000 97 82-123 64 47/91 132
Oldman River at Lethbridge 2,791,000 94 74-114 60 44/91 106
Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically
 
* - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

 
NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


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