Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2006

Table 4b - Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2006 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2006 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2006 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 689,000** 95 82-116 63 40/91 72*** 44/91
Belly River 224,000* 94 79-116 71 35/91 97*** 55/91
Waterton River 588,000* 100 81-116 71 50/91 100*** 55/91
Oldman River near Brocket 1,022,000* 97 81-123 63 49/91 110*** 67/91
Oldman River at Lethbridge 2,704,000* 94 74-116 60 45/91 120*** 68/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2006 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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