Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2008

Table 3b - Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2008 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2008 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2008 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 709,000** 98 82-120 66 42/91 44*** 15/91
Belly River 225,000* 94 84-118 74 36/91 49*** 6/91
Waterton River 548,000* 93 78-114 66 37/91 41*** 4/91
Oldman River near Brocket 988,000* 94 77-124 62 43/91 61*** 23/91
Oldman River at Lethbridge 2,648,000* 92 72-120 59 45/91 47*** 13/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2008 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2008 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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