Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2009

Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2009 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2009 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2009 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 950,000* 91 82-98 78 26/91 111** 73/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 153,000* 85 71-106 63 31/91 75** 22/91
Spray River near Banff 323,000* 91 79-104 70 32/91 119** 80/91
Kananaskis River 366,000* 92 81-104 71 33/91 92** 36/91
Bow River at Calgary 2,100,000* 89 78-102 72 28/91 96** 43/91
Elbow River 164,000* 78 63-99 56 30/91 132** 86/91
Highwood River 454,000* 75 50-100 41 31/91 81** 48/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2009 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2009 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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