Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
April 2010
Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2010 - Oldman River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2010 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average | Reasonable Minimum as % of Average | Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March 2010 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
St. Mary River | 585,000** | 81 | 66-98 | 50 | 22/91 | 49*** | 25/91 | |
Belly River | 192,000* | 80 | 68-97 | 58 | 20/91 | 70*** | 20/91 | |
Waterton River | 483,000* | 82 | 63-98 | 50 | 23/91 | 75*** | 38/91 | |
Oldman River near Brocket | 863,000* | 82 | 57-99 | 51 | 29/91 | 80*** | 29/91 | |
Oldman River at Lethbridge | 2,301,000* | 80 | 56-98 | 47 | 28/91 | 64*** | 32/91 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2010 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share*** - Recorded 2010 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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