Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2012

Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2012 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2012 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average
Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2012 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 1,187,000* 113 101-122 88 69/91 98** 54/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 213,000* 118 97-132 80 72/91 83** 35/91
Spray River near Banff 399,000* 112 100-123 94 67/91 103** 52/91
Kananaskis River 393,000* 94 90-113 73 44/91 119** 69/91
Bow River at Calgary 2,526,000* 107 95-121 82 60/91 111** 60/91
Elbow River 206,000* 95 79-109 70 51/91 118** 78/91
Highwood River 615,000* 98 82-116 66 52/91 75** 48/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2012 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2012 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


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