Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
April 2012
Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2012 - Bow River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2012 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 |
Volume as a % of Average |
Probable Range as a % of Average |
Potential Minimum as % of Average |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March 2012 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Bow River at Banff | 1,187,000* | 113 | 101-122 | 88 | 69/91 | 98** | 54/91 | |
Lake Minnewanka Inflow | 213,000* | 118 | 97-132 | 80 | 72/91 | 83** | 35/91 | |
Spray River near Banff | 399,000* | 112 | 100-123 | 94 | 67/91 | 103** | 52/91 | |
Kananaskis River | 393,000* | 94 | 90-113 | 73 | 44/91 | 119** | 69/91 | |
Bow River at Calgary | 2,526,000* | 107 | 95-121 | 82 | 60/91 | 111** | 60/91 | |
Elbow River | 206,000* | 95 | 79-109 | 70 | 51/91 | 118** | 78/91 | |
Highwood River | 615,000* | 98 | 82-116 | 66 | 52/91 | 75** | 48/91 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2012 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - Recorded 2012 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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