Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2012

Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2012 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2012 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2012 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 690,000** 95 86-108 74 41/91 62*** 35/91
Belly River 234,000* 98 82-114 75 42/91 115*** 68/91
Waterton River 612,000* 104 92-113 84 55/91 96*** 50/91
Oldman River near Brocket 1,102,000* 104 91-125 69 54/91 64*** 24/91
Oldman River at Lethbridge 2,828,000* 99 81-117 68 49/91 56*** 27/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2012 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2012 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca