Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
April 2013
Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2013 - Bow River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2013 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 |
Volume as a % of Average |
Probable Range as a % of Average |
Potential Minimum as % of Average |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March 2013 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Bow River at Banff | 1,011,000* | 102 | 99-107 | 95 | 45/99 | 120** | 98/99 | |
Lake Minnewanka Inflow | 163,000* | 96 | 85-111 | 75 | 37/99 | 104** | 61/99 | |
Spray River near Banff | 373,000* | 107 | 99-114 | 93 | 56/99 | 94** | 59/99 | |
Kananaskis River | 377,000* | 102 | 92-113 | 84 | 42/99 | 93** | 64/99 | |
Bow River at Calgary | 2,289,000* | 103 | 97-108 | 93 | 47/99 | 111** | 84/99 | |
Elbow River | 181,000* | 94 | 81-117 | 69 | 42/99 | 113** | 85/99 | |
Highwood River | 474,000* | 88 | 71-88 | 56 | 37/99 | 102** | 69/99 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2013 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - Recorded 2013 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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