Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2013

Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2013 - Red Deer River Basin (Natural Flows)


Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2013 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2013 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Red Deer River
at Dickson Dam 		824,000* 97 81-117 66 53/99 61** 13/91
Red Deer River
at Red Deer 		1,090,000* 91 71-112 52 47/99 45** 25/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2013 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** Recorded 2013 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2010

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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