Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2016

Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2016 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2016 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2016 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 911,000* 92 89-95 87 24/99 109** 84/99
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 148,000* 87 77-96 69 26/99 99** 56/99
Spray River near Banff 351,000* 101 94-110 87 45/99 128** 99/99
Kananaskis River 366,000* 99 92-105 85 37/99 159** 99/99
Bow River at Calgary 2,129,000* 95 90-101 86 32/99 91** 43/99
Elbow River 174,000* 90 83-96 77 39/99 111** 83/99
Highwood River 416,000* 77 63-91 51 28/99 71** 49/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2016 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca