Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2016

Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2016 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)


Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2016 Year to date
Locations Volume
in dam3 		Volume as a
% of Median 		Probable Range as a % of Median Potential Minimum as
% of Median 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2016 Volume as a % of Median Ranking (lowest to highest)
Milk River at
Western Crossing 		26,100* 80 62-114 45 27/98 44** 15/98
Milk River
at Milk River 		37,100* 70 49-90 31 20/98 35** 10/98
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing 		51,200* 81 56-107 33 24/98 28** 5/98

* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date


** Recorded 2016 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Median is calculated for period 1981 to 2008

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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