Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2016

Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2016 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2016 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2016 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 2,025,000* 95 90-101 86 30/100 133** 90/100
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,137,000* 75 59-94 46 14/100 91** 42/100
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,410,000* 83 75-90 68 18/100 65** 40/100

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** Recorded 2016 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2010

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca