Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2002

Milk River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Much-above-average volumes are forecast for the March to September 2002 period in the Milk River basin (Table 2a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 203 to 234 % of the median. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the Milk River at Milk River would rank 75th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95). August 1 forecasts increased slightly (1 to 14 %) as a result of rainfall early in July on a very wet basin. Current runoff volume forecasts for this year are 179 to 210 % higher than recorded runoff volumes last summer.

The first five months of the forecast period have been completed, with the March-July 2002 recorded runoff volumes being near the highest on record, ranging from 198 to 229 % of median. Preliminary data indicates that the recorded volume (March to July 2002) at the Milk River at Milk River would rank tenth highest on record. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 2b.

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