North Saskatchewan River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes (for the March to September 2002 period) are forecast to be below-average to average in the North Saskatchewan River basin (Table 6a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 73 to 107 % of average. The August 1 forecasts increased 10 % at Bighorn Dam due to precipitation in early July. Remaining portions of the basin received much-below-normal precipitation in July and as a result, volume forecasts dropped between 2 and 7 % at Brazeau and Edmonton compared to last month's forecast. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 13th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95). The August 1 forecasts are 7 to 24 % higher than recorded values observed over the same time period last year.

The first five months of the forecast period have been completed, with the March-July 2002 recorded runoff volumes being the below-average to average, ranging from 74 to 108 % of average. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 6b.