Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2002

Red Deer River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes (for the March to September 2002 period) are forecast to be much-below-average for the Red Deer River basin, ranging from 63 to 68 % of average (Table 5a). The August 1 forecasts dropped 9 to 13 % from last month's forecast due to the much-below-normal precipitation during July. The lack of precipitation since April has resulted in substantial decreases to the forecast volumes. Most streams are below-average for this time of the year, which is as a result of the below-normal precipitation to date and the very dry antecedant conditions. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the Red Deer River at Red Deer would rank 20th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95). The August 1 forecasts are only 6 to 11 % higher than recorded values observed over the same time period last year.

The first five months of the forecast period have been completed, with the March-July 2002 recorded runoff volumes being much-below-average, ranging from 64 to 69 % of average. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 5b.

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