Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2003

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2003 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2003 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 242,000* 86 80-106 74 16/85 87** 19/85
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 41,500* 95 79-118 73 46/85 102** 48/85
Spray River near Banff 72,800* 87 81-106 72 23/85 89** 28/85
Kananaskis River 88,600* 83 76-109 68 16/85 78** 14/85
Bow River at Calgary 531,000* 84 73-105 65 20/85 86** 23/85
Elbow River 38,400* 78 69-98 65 27/85 80** 30/85
Highwood River 54,500* 61 48-113 45 30/85 69** 26/85

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2003 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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