Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2003

Table 2b - Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2003 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume
in dam3
Volume as a
% of Median
Probable Range as a % of Median Reasonable Minimum as
% of Median
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2003 Volume as a % of Median Ranking (lowest to highest)
Milk River at
Western Crossing
300* 7 0-63 0 9/65** 80*** 22/65**
Milk River
at Milk River
2,940* 46 21-110 17 15/85 66*** 23/85
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing
4,060* 64 47-107 23 25/85 68*** 28/85

* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** Western Crossing data is from 1931-95

*** Recorded 2003 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Median is calculated for period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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