Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2004

Milk River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Much-below-average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the March to September 2004 period in the Milk River basin (Table 2a). August 1 forecasts in the basin range from 32 to 37% of the median, a decrease of 2% of median since last month's forecasts. Current forecasts rank from 11th to 14th lowest on record (70 to 91 years).

The first five months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-July 2004 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 31 to 37% of average, which is much-below-average, ranking from 12th to 16th lowest on record. Recorded volume data is preliminary and is subject to change. Current volumes represent approximately 90% or more of the total volumes forecasted (March-September). The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 2b. Forecasts for the August through September 2004 period range from much below average runoff at the western border crossing of the river to below average runoff at the eastern border crossing.

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