Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2004

Table 6b - Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2004 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Average
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 751,000* 99 94-124 83 22/43** 103**** 16/30
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 292,000* 75 60-118 51 12/44*** 76**** 10/41
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 1,448,000* 84 76-112 60 30/91 70**** 10/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

 
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** Lake Abraham is compared to 43 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 44 years of data

**** Recorded 2004 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


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