Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2004

Table 3b - Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2004 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 74,300** 76 57-120 29 31/91 74*** 18/91
Belly River 30,400* 84 81-142 68 33/91 89*** 32/91
Waterton River 44,800* 72 58-140 44 31/91 73*** 21/91
Oldman River near Brocket 73,200* 68 54-115 38 26/91 60*** 14/91
Oldman River at Lethbridge 231,000* 69 53-118 37 27/91 65*** 16/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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