Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2004

Table 5b - Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2004 - Red Deer River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Red Deer River
at Dickson Dam
190,000* 80 63-90 48 36/91 75** 26/91
Red Deer River
at Red Deer
240,000* 82 49-113 41 47/91 62** 22/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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