Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2004

Red Deer River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of August 1, 2004, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2004 period are forecast to be below-average at Dickson Dam, and below to much below average at Red Deer (Table 5a). The current forecasted volumes for the March to September 2004 period for the Red Deer River basin are similar to last month's, and 21 to 31% lower than the volumes recorded over the same time period last year. Current forecasted volume at Red Deer would rank 25th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).

The first five months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-July 2004 recorded runoff volumes at Dickson Dam and Red Deer are below average and much-below-average, respectively, at 75 and 62% of average, ranking 26th and 22nd lowest on record. Recorded volume data is preliminary, and is subject to change. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 5b. Below-average natural runoff is forecasted for the August through September 2004 period.

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