Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2005

July 2005 Precipitation

Areas north of a line through Grande Prairie, Slave Lake and Cold Lake recorded generally much above normal precipitation, with the exception of a band between High Level and Fort Chipewyan, which recorded below normal precipitation. Precipitation in areas south of this line was generally much below normal, except mountain and foothill areas west of Edmonton and Calgary and isolated areas of east central Alberta, which recorded below normal precipitation (Figure 1). July precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.
 

Summmer Precipitation (May 1, 2005 to July 31, 2005)

Precipitation in southern Alberta was generally much above normal, except for areas south of Medicine Hat, which recorded normal precipitation. Northern and central Alberta precipitation generally ranged from below normal to normal, with the exceptions of the High Level area, Fort McMurray to Cold Lake area and west central Alberta, which recorded above to much above normal precipitation (Figure 3). Summer precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 4.
 

Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2004 to April 30, 2005)

Most of northern and west central Alberta recorded below normal to normal winter precipitation. A few exceptions being small areas north of Fort McMurray and east of Red Deer, the town of Peace River, and the High Level region, where above normal to much above normal precipitation was recorded, and the area between Slave Lake, Edmonton, and Lac La Biche where much below normal precipitation was recorded. East central and southern plains areas of Alberta recorded much below normal precipitation with the exceptions of the Medicine Hat and Lloydminster areas where normal precipitation was recorded, and the Cypress Hills which recorded above normal winter precipitation. In the mountains, below normal to normal precipitation was recorded, with one exception being the Sunshine area (southwest of Banff) which recorded much above normal precipitation (Figure 5). Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6.
 

Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2004)

Much above normal precipitation was recorded in a band across the province from Peace River and Jasper to Cold Lake, whereas northeastern Alberta recorded normal precipitation and the northwestern corner of the province recorded below normal precipitation. Most of southern Alberta recorded below normal to normal precipitation except in Rocky Mountain House, High River, and Claresholm where much above normal precipitation occurred, and the Drumheller, Brooks, and Medicine Hat areas where much below normal precipitation was recorded (Figure 7). Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 8.

Soil moisture conditions in agricultural areas of the province, as measured by Alberta Agriculture for October 31, 2004 , can be seen in Figure 9. Soil moisture generally ranges from normal to well above normal in southern and western Alberta, with the most notable exceptions being in the High Level and Edson areas, which range from below normal to extreme deficit. Much of east central Alberta is classified as having below to well below normal soil moisture.

 

Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on August 1, 2005 for the August through October 2005 period is for below normal precipitation in southern Alberta, normal precipitation in central Alberta, and above normal precipitation in most of northern Alberta. Above normal temperatures are expected for the province. Environment Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on July 21, 2005 for August through October 2005 is for an even chance of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation and temperature in southern Alberta. The NOAA is reporting that ENSO neutral conditions (no El Nino or La Nina) are expected for the next three to six months. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.
 


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