North Saskatchewan River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of August 1, 2006, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2006 period are forecast to be much below average into the Brazeau Reservoir and at Edmonton, at 63 and 75% of average respectively, and average into the Bighorn Reservoir at 104% of average (Table 7a). This represents a 17% decrease since the July 1 forecasts at the Brazeau Reservoir and less than a 1% decrease at the Bighorn Reservoir, which results in a 10% decrease in the Edmonton forecast. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 11th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).

The first five months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-July 2006 recorded natural runoff volumes at the Brazeau Reservoir being the 3rd lowest in 41 years of record at 59% of average. The Bighorn Reservoir recorded natural runoff which was above average at 107% of average and Edmonton recorded much below average natural runoff volumes at 71% of average, 11th lowest in 91 years of record. Recorded volume data is preliminary, and is subject to change. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 7b. For August - September 2006, below to much below average natural runoff volumes are forecast at Brazeau and Edmonton, and near average inflows are forecast at the Bighorn Reservoir. Current forecasted values for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 25th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).