Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2006

Table 4b - Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2006 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2006 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2006 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 87,000** 89 75-110 67 41/91 95*** 42/91
Belly River 32,500* 90 77-115 72 39/91 97*** 40/91
Waterton River 56,600* 91 67-120 65 46/91 102*** 52/91
Oldman River near Brocket 88,900* 82 66-124 63 42/91 84*** 33/91
Oldman River at Lethbridge 284,000* 85 64-115 60 39/91 94*** 43/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

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** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2006 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions Jun vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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