Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2006

Red Deer River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of August 1, 2006, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2006 period are forecast to be below to much below average into Dickson Dam and at Red Deer, at 70 and 65% of average, respectively (Table 6a). These forecasts have dropped by 7% of average since the July 1 forecasts. The current forecasted volume at Red Deer would rank 21st lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).

The first five months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-July 2006 recorded runoff volumes at 69 and 65% of average, 18th and 22nd lowest on record, which is below to much below average for this period. Recorded volume data is preliminary, and is subject to change. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 6b. Below to much below average natural runoff volumes are expected for the August through September 2006 period. The current forecasted volume at Red Deer would rank 24th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).


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