Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2009

Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2009 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2009 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2009 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 225,000* 80 72-94 70 14/91 71** 2/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 35,500* 83 75-99 68 30/91 82** 26/91
Spray River near Banff 73,700* 88 81-98 67 28/91 83** 21/91
Kananaskis River 88,600* 84 78-94 69 19/91 74** 10/91
Bow River at Calgary 520,000* 83 74-97 67 16/91 73** 10/91
Elbow River 40,800* 84 72-102 68 39/91 82** 36/91
Highwood River 50,200* 58 48-94 36 27/91 63** 19/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2009 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2009 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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