Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2009

Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2009 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)


Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2009 Year to date
Locations Volume
in dam3 		Volume as a
% of Median 		Probable Range as a % of Median Potential Minimum as
% of Median 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2009 Volume as a % of Median Ranking (lowest to highest)
Milk River at
Western Crossing 		2,400* 56 29-131 15 27/72** 63*** 23/70*
Milk River
at Milk River 		3,600* 61 35-99 22 25/90 46*** 18/91
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing 		4,000* 67 46-102 23 27/91 43*** 21/91

* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2009 forecast minus the recorded volume to date


** Western Crossing data is from 1931-2001

*** Recorded 2009 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Median is calculated for period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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