Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2010

Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2010 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2010 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2010 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 225,000* 80 72-94 70 14/91 67** 1/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 36,000* 83 75-99 66 30/91 83** 26/91
Spray River near Banff 68,600* 82 75-88 63 17/91 70** 6/91
Kananaskis River 88,600* 84 78-94 69 19/91 73** 10/91
Bow River at Calgary 506,000* 81 73-92 66 20/91 73** 10/91
Elbow River 40,000* 82 71-92 69 38/91 81** 35/91
Highwood River 55,000* 63 50-92 46 33/91 73** 31/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2010 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2010 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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