Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
August 2010
Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2010 - Oldman River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2010 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average | Reasonable Minimum as % of Average | Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-July 2010 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
St. Mary River | 97,000** | 99 | 92-118 | 82 | 50/91 | 117*** | 69/91 | |
Belly River | 34,800* | 96 | 82-106 | 70 | 47/91 | 104*** | 51/91 | |
Waterton River | 56,700* | 92 | 80-110 | 65 | 46/91 | 103*** | 52/91 | |
Oldman River near Brocket | 90,000* | 83 | 67-100 | 62 | 42/91 | 89*** | 39/91 | |
Oldman River at Lethbridge | 293,000* | 88 | 73-109 | 65 | 47/91 | 113*** | 64/91 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2010 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share*** - Recorded 2010 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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