Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2011

Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2011 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2011 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2011 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 293,000* 104 97-107 91 62/91 98** 46/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 52,000* 120 102-140 88 72/91 145** 87/91
Spray River near Banff 71,500* 85 79-90 66 22/91 82** 18/91
Kananaskis River 108,000* 102 90-112 85 46/91 106** 53/91
Bow River at Calgary 635,000* 101 93-107 83 59/91 119** 73/91
Elbow River 58,700* 121 83-131 78 73/91 140** 77/91
Highwood River 149,000* 171 150-190 130 82/91 159** 82/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2011 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2011 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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