Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2012

Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2012 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2012 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2012 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 303,000* 108 100-131 96 68/91 140** 89/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 52,400* 122 99-166 84 72/91 176** 90/91
Spray River near Banff 96,700* 115 106-121 95 74/91 120** 79/91
Kananaskis River 115,000* 110 98-115 89 67/91 127** 79/91
Bow River at Calgary 687,000* 110 99-127 90 69/91 139** 89/91
Elbow River 48,000* 98 87-108 83 58/91 115 61/91
Highwood River 88,000* 62 84-130 75 67/91 124** 66/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2012 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2012 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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