Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2012

Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2012 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2012 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2012 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 105,000** 107 78-119 70 61/91 110*** 65/91
Belly River 39,600* 110 101-128 74 65/91 116*** 69/91
Waterton River 53,500* 86 71-119 59 45/91 92*** 36/91
Oldman River near Brocket 103,000* 95 83-107 70 55/91 111*** 58/91
Oldman River at Lethbridge 314,000* 94 78-116 63 50/91 108*** 57/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2012 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2012 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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