Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
August 2014
Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2014 - Oldman River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2014 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average | Reasonable Minimum as % of Average | Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-July 2014 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
St. Mary River | 77,000** | 94 | 76-121 | 59 | 37/99 | 142*** | 83/99 | |
Belly River | 36,000* | 105 | 92-125 | 80 | 56/99 | 129*** | 82/99 | |
Waterton River | 54,000* | 98 | 83-128 | 69 | 49/99 | 134*** | 84/99 | |
Oldman River near Brocket | 116,000* | 114 | 97-132 | 81 | 68/99 | 155*** | 85/99 | |
Oldman River at Lethbridge | 340,000* | 108 | 93-123 | 79 | 63/99 | 146*** | 85/99 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2014 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share*** - Recorded 2014 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2009 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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