Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
August 2016
Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2016 - Bow River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2016 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 |
Volume as a % of Average |
Probable Range as a % of Average |
Potential Minimum as % of Average |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-July 2016 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Bow River at Banff | 224,000* | 87 | 78-96 | 69 | 17/99 | 86** | 16/99 | |
Lake Minnewanka Inflow | 33,000* | 84 | 69-101 | 56 | 25/99 | 68** | 6/99 | |
Spray River near Banff | 72,000* | 90 | 76-104 | 64 | 27/99 | 81** | 12/99 | |
Kananaskis River | 82,000* | 87 | 77-99 | 68 | 14/99 | 83** | 19/99 | |
Bow River at Calgary | 523,000* | 88 | 82-94 | 77 | 23/99 | 78** | 11/99 | |
Elbow River | 40,000* | 87 | 77-111 | 68 | 39/99 | 66** | 14/99 | |
Highwood River | 67,000* | 83 | 43-125 | 7 | 47/99 | 50** | 9/99 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - Recorded 2016 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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